New Orleans

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	239.0
Current RPI:	239
Expected SOS:	299
Current SOS:	299
Current Record:	12-16
Expected Record:	12-16
Current Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-4
Current OOC Record:	0-8
Expected OOC Record:	0-8
Expected OOC RPI:	294
Expected OOC SOS:	37

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-16	239.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Orleans.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	St. John's (92.0)	BE	A	77-61	L	0%
11-13	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	A	87-68	L	0%
11-21	Memphis (106.0)	Amer	A	63-52	L	0%
11-26	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	A	55-52	L	0%
11-29	Houston (18.0)	Amer	A	75-66	L	0%
12-13	SMU (113.0)	Amer	A	79-66	L	0%
12-16	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	A	87-65	L	0%
12-20	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	A	74-67	L	0%
12-28	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	H	77-74	W	100%
12-30	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	A	57-64	W	100%
1-3	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	H	72-62	W	100%
1-6	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	A	75-82	W	100%
1-10	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	A	78-68	L	0%
1-13	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	H	61-55	W	100%
1-17	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	H	57-81	L	0%
1-20	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	H	74-70	W	100%
1-24	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	A	67-73	W	100%
1-27	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	A	58-68	W	100%
1-31	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	H	82-64	W	100%
2-3	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	H	64-81	L	0%
2-10	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	A	53-62	W	100%
2-14	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	A	71-64	L	0%
2-17	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	H	90-74	W	100%
2-21	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	A	57-54	L	0%
2-24	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	A	78-64	L	0%
2-28	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	H	64-68	L	0%
3-7	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	N	83-76	W	100%
3-8	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	N	85-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Orleans's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

New Orleans's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against New Orleans.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
New Orleans	Slnd	26.49	26.49	48.33	48.33	-0.88	-0.88
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	6.15	6.15	34.78	34.78	-1.87	-1.87
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	4.56	4.56	60.71	60.71	0.98	0.98
Nicholls St.	Slnd	4.49	4.49	57.69	57.69	0.69	0.69
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.49	4.49	48.15	48.15	-0.17	-0.17
McNeese St.	Slnd	4.47	4.47	34.78	34.78	-1.36	-1.36
Northwestern St.	Slnd	4.44	4.44	8.70	8.70	-3.67	-3.67
Incarnate Word	Slnd	4.41	4.41	13.64	13.64	-3.21	-3.21
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	2.87	2.87	79.31	79.31	1.68	1.68
Houston Baptist	Slnd	2.82	2.82	11.11	11.11	-2.19	-2.19
Lamar	Slnd	2.81	2.81	55.56	55.56	0.31	0.31
Central Arkansas	Slnd	2.80	2.80	48.39	48.39	-0.09	-0.09
Abilene Christian	Slnd	2.77	2.77	46.15	46.15	-0.21	-0.21
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.04	2.04	80.00	80.00	1.22	1.22
Houston	Amer	2.01	2.01	78.12	78.12	1.13	1.13
SMU	Amer	1.94	1.94	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Memphis	Amer	1.87	1.87	60.61	60.61	0.40	0.40
South Alabama	SB	1.84	1.84	37.93	37.93	-0.44	-0.44
UAB	CUSA	1.81	1.81	56.67	56.67	0.24	0.24
Oakland	Horz	1.79	1.79	56.25	56.25	0.22	0.22
St. John's	BE	1.79	1.79	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
Tulane	Amer	0.31	0.31	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.30	0.30	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.30	0.30	43.33	43.33	-0.04	-0.04
Texas St.	SB	0.28	0.28	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
UCF	Amer	0.25	0.25	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
Cincinnati	Amer	0.24	0.24	88.24	88.24	0.18	0.18
Little Rock	SB	0.23	0.23	20.00	20.00	-0.14	-0.14
Mississippi	SEC	0.19	0.19	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Tulsa	Amer	0.19	0.19	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.19	0.19	31.25	31.25	-0.07	-0.07
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.18	0.18	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Troy	SB	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.16	0.16	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
East Carolina	Amer	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
LSU	SEC	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Connecticut	Amer	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.13	0.13	17.24	17.24	-0.09	-0.09
Idaho	BSky	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Villanova	BE	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Temple	Amer	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Appalachian St.	SB	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	12.50	12.50	-0.07	-0.07
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Samford	SC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
UMKC	WAC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
FIU	CUSA	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.03	-0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01